In this paper we propose a simple model to forecast industrial production in Italy up to 6 months ahead. We show that the forecasts produced using the model outperform some popular forecasts as well as those stemming from an ARIMA model used as a benchmark and those from some single equation alternative models. We show how the use of these forecasts can improve the estimate of a cyclical indicator and the early detection of turning points for the manufacturing sector. This is of paramount importance for short-term economic analysis.
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-004-0203-y|
|Codice identificativo Scopus:||2-s2.0-4644274683|
|Titolo:||Forecasting Industrial Production and the Early Detection of Turning Points|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articolo in rivista|