Impact of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Services Supply: A Meta Analysis of the Italian Context

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) are caused by several factors, including climate change, socio-demographic dynamics, human pressures and urban sprawl. These factors alter the structure and functionality of ecosystems and their capacity to provide ecosystem goods and services to society. The study of LULC changes is important for understanding the dynamics of relationships between environmental, social and economic components and for analyzing the factors affecting natural capital. Including ecosystem services (ES) in spatial planning tools and sectoral policies is useful for improving governance. In this paper, the impact of LULC changes on ES provision has been estimated. To this end, we carried out a literature review (Step 1) to select the biophysical and economic coefficients of ES supply by land cover classes and collect them in a database (Step 2). We subsequently aggregated the economic and biophysical coefficients by macro classes (Step 3) and, using the benefit transfer approach, we estimated the change in the supply of ESs concerning permanence and transition phenomena in Italy from 1990 to 2018 (Step 4). The transition phenomena analysis also allowed us to evaluate the consequences of urbanization and urban green space governance on ES supply. Indeed, these urban green spaces can help reduce risks to people's health and safety and mitigate the effects induced by climate change. In total, approximately 800 coefficients (biophysical and economic) of ESs supplied by Corine Land Cover classes were acquired. The results show a reduction in the annual supply of ecosystem services of EUR 927 million (2022) caused by LULC changes between 1990 and 2018. This research proposes a methodology to improve knowledge of ESs concerning anthropogenic impacts and to support land-use planning policies regarding Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals.