A full Bayesian calibration model for assessing age in adults by means of pulp/tooth area ratio in periapical radiography

The Bayesian approach is being a fundamental tool in forensic and legal field where inferences and decisions are made. In this study, a full Bayesian calibration model was developed to make probabilistic inferences about age estimation in a reference sample of 891 periapical X-rays of upper and lower canines. These teeth belonged to both deceased and living adult subjects, aged between 20 and 86 years, coming from five different countries (Turkey, Italy, Portugal, Japan and Mexico). For this purpose, the narrowing of pulp chamber due to the apposition of secondary dentine was analysed by means of the pulp/tooth area ratio. To determine the agreement of the method, intra- and inter-observer differences for measuring process were calculated by means of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) analysis. Observer error tests showed excellent agreement between observers and between repeated assessments. According to the results of the ANCOVA, neither nationality nor sex was associated to the secondary dentine apposition while it is associated with individual’s age. The results of the present study indicated that the concept of probability is intrinsically linked to the assessment of age in a forensic context, and the Bayesian approach could be considered a robust tool to overtake the bias generated by traditional regression models, thus helping the decision-making process in a legal framework.