A LARGE-SCALE PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR STRUCTURAL SAFETY MANAGEMENT OF HEALTH SERVICE NETWORKS IN SEISMIC PRONE AREAS

Safety assessment of healthcare facilities under critical operative conditions due to earthquake or other disasters is a complex task. It involves the protection of both structural and non-structural components as well as the safety of healthcare operators in the workplace. To this end, the probabilistic structural safety assessment of infrastructure network at large-scale (e.g., regional) represents a crucial goal for implementing preventive emergency management protocols, particularly in the inner zones of Italy, where infrastructures are dislocated over the territory and placed in seismic-prone areas. In this paper, a large-scale probabilistic structural safety assessment method for hospital infrastructures is presented. The scenario earthquakes are selected according to probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (i.e., including the disaggregation of the seismic hazard in terms of magnitude, M, epicentral distance, R). To compute the structural safety, the seismic Intensity Measure (typically expressed through the peak-ground acceleration or spectral parameters) has been represented through disaggregation of the ground motion in terms of M-R, using ground motion prediction equations including Eurocode 8 soil classes and style of fault. As a result, the seismic fragility is represented adopting fragility matrices, instead of fragility curves. The procedure, which can be considered as a baseline for the prioritization of seismic protection measures and informed management of the sanitary personnel, has been applied and validated referring to the hospital network of the Molise Region located in the Apennine area of Italy.